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Re: (ASCEND) The MAX TNT



On Sat, 18 Oct 1997, Will Pierce wrote:

> 
> On Sat, 18 Oct 1997, Jason Nealis wrote:
> 
> >  In my opinion, The TNT does hold the future for Ascend. This is 
> > their next generation product to battle both USR and LIVINGSTON's
> > new line of items to hit soon. If they fail with the TNT I'm sure
> > the Stock will show it. 
> > 
> >  Look at the reports from Bloomberg and other financial inst's. They
> > all refer to problems with the TNT's.
> 
> In a broader scope- I think the MAX TNT hasn't been as widely selling for
> one reason only.  The last boardwatch index of ISP's listed over 17,000
> ISPs (the actual number may be around 5,000- I didn't count duplicates in
> their weighty index.)  The short of it is- there are a bloody lot of ISP's
> out there.  Fortunately, the demand for internet access is over the top of
> the charts.  It doesn't cost much to start up an ISP.  The "mom and pop"
> shops out there have a few hundred subscribers and tons of pots lines into
> their home/office.
> 
> As customer expectations rise for value-added services, and companies
> demand faster connections, more reliable hardware, etc etc- the smaller
> ISP's are going to go under.  (PM2's are going to be _real_ cheap next
> spring.)  The signs of a shakeout are already here.


> 
> I think the TNT is going to be very appealing for the ISP's who survive
> the shakeout.  I personally would rather administer one TNT rather than
> a dozen MAXes.  (Think back to the last time you upgraded all your MAXes.)
> It's just like the step from desktop modems, or cheesy racks of basically
> the same thing to an integrated device like the max 4000.  Instead of
> upgrading each modem individually, we now upgrade a whole chassis of
> anywhere from 24 to 72 modems in a MAX 40xx.

 Agreed, But remember after that shakedown, there just won't be 
the TNT there are going to products from Bay, Livingston and USR
will all have these higher port carrier class products, Thats
why it's very important for Ascend to prove to the public that 
the TNT is stable and can do everything but the windows.
> 
> To put all this together, in my (nsh) opinion the TNT is going to be the
> product of choice in the next six months or so.  The ISP's who can't
> scale themselves to meet the demand of the internet access market will
> crumble.  This will lead to fewer, but bigger ISP's.  Because of the
> nature of the equipment- it will make more sense to get a TNT, rather than
> a max 40xx every other week.  Ascend is ahead of the race to get carrier
> class hardware out the door- so the reports of problems with the TNT are
> normal.  Remember 4.6Cp(fill in the blank)?  If you judged the MAX 40xx's
> -today- on 4.6C code, other vendor's hardware would look a hell of a lot
> better.


In regards to the management of multiple boxes, From what I have heard
Navis access will address this issue and give you the ease of
configuration managment for lot's of boxes. 

Jason Nealis
Director Internet Operations
Network Access
Erols Internet

> 
> In short- I think the TNT sales have been low because the demand for
> "carrier class" hardware just isn't that strong...  yet.  (But it will be,
> and soon.)
> 
> -Will
> 
> P.S.  I could be wrong, though.
> 
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