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Re: (ASCEND) The MAX TNT (fwd)

MZ

I think you're overly optimistic about Livingston's future (and how quickly
Lucent can do anything) and making the mistake of taking a classic
engineering approach to problem that is much more complex.  Companies don't
abandon a company/product line just because it may get behind on a single
feature - e.g. density.  The fact is market momentum, a proven code base,
complete solutions capability and the user experience with the product
count for much more than a single feature - or even a handful of features.

The vast majority of the larger ISPs are using Ascend product, are familiar
with the interface and all the intricacies of these products, and have
large installed bases of MAX 4Ks, and increasingly TNTs. These ISPs also
have many people who are knowledgeable about how to operate the Ascend
products and they probably don't want to spend a whole lot of time learning
another access router's issues (let alone one from a company that has only
recently started developing their own router code).  I would bet that these
companies aren't going to change their purchase patterns over any short
period of time. To move from an environment where you are supporting one
standard and proven type of product to one with multiple access routers
makes the support burden increase dramatically in my experience - and most
companies aren't going to move in that direction unless there are a lot of
compelling reasons.  Just as Cisco has dominated the backbone router market
despite attempts from Bay, the fact is that once someone gains a large
marketshare in these markets, as long as they keep moving at a relatively
quick page - as Ascend is - they rarely lose it. 

Additionally, The TNT has a broad array of expansion cards - IDSL, SDSL,
RADSL, HSSI, Frameline, 100Mb Ethernet, T1, T3, ... with a boatload of code
and proven software features that have and been wrung out over a number of
years use in virtually all the major ISPs around the world.  Bay and
Livingston will take years to catch up to the TNT in terms of functionality
and robustness (IMHO). Add to this that fact that Bay, ACC and Livingston
have very limited experience in these large networks that Ascend has many
years experience in, and you really have to wonder who in their right mind
would risk their entire company to squeeze out a little more on one feature.  

Add to this that fact that Ascend has great management software solutions
now, powerful security solutions, and an R&D budget that probably dwarfs
the entire revenue of ACC and Livingston in the ISP market and I think that
we can count on these also rans to go the way of Gandalf.  How many
backbone router companies are there today?  

Brian

(An independent consultant, occasionally doing work for Ascend)

At 06:42 PM 10/19/97 -0700, MegaZone wrote:
>Once upon a time Will Pierce shaped the electrons to say...
>>I think the TNT is going to be very appealing for the ISP's who survive
>>the shakeout.  I personally would rather administer one TNT rather than
>
>But by then it will have competition.  The TNT is not a dense product even
>now.  Both the BAY 5000 and the ACC Tigris are denser.  And the Tigris
>can do a T3 in ONE chassis.
>
>Add to that the 3Com Hi-Per Access TC, which is the densest product
>announced to date (almost twice that of the TNT) and there is more 
>competition.
>
>And Livingston will shortly be announcing a new product which ups the
>ante again.
>
>The TNT had the market to itself for a while.  The ACC is not a well know
>or widely used product, and Bay just started shipping the 5399 blades which
>really make the 5000 viable.
>
>If 3Com's claimes hold true by the end of the year there will be two 
>new products - 3Com and Livingston - on the market with a much higher
>density and much higher performance that the TNT.
>
>So I'd hope Ascend has a new product due shortly.  The TNT, as it stands
>today, is behind the technology curve.  It was ahead, in some areas, but
>the competition doesn't stand still and technology in this industry moves
>damn fast.
>
>-MZ
>--


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